;
What If Tibet Was Free?
April 29, 2008
Although there have been many calls for a free Tibet recently, I have not seen any analysis on what a free and independent Tibet would look like. The consensus seems to be that as soon as the Tibetans throw off the yolk of the Chinese oppressors, Tibet will be pretty much the same as today, but better. However, Tibet as an independent nation would be a vastly different place than the Tibetan Autonomous Region of the People’s Republic of China (TAR). By looking at the state of Tibet today, and the results of recent “breakaway” countries, it is possible to determine what Tibet might look like if all of the Olympic Torch protesters got their way. Since this site is called “A Geek Talks About Money,” and not “A Geek Talks About Buddhism” nor “A Geek Talks About Politics,” I will mostly cover the economic effects of a free Tibet. I’m also going to make the (rather large) assumptions that Tibet separates from China peacefully, with no bloodshed on either side, and that the independent Tibet will have the same borders as the TAR.
How is Tibet Doing Now?
Currently, Tibet is the Cuba to the People’s Republic of China’s Soviet Union. With only 2.7 million people spread out over 1.2 million square kilometers, Tibet is one of the poorest regions in China. The Chinese government pumps billions of dollars into the Tibetan region, from highways to dams to railroads. Tibetans are exempt from government taxation, and the Beijing government provides 90% of the Tibetan regional government’s operating expenditures. Mostly due to government intervention and tourism, the Tibetan economy has grown at an annualized rate of 12% since 2000, more than doubling annual GDP from 12 billion RMB (US$ 1.7 billion) to 29 billion RMB (US$ 4.1 billion) in 2006. Tourism has given a major boost to the Tibetan economy, with more than 2.5 million people visiting the Tibetan Autonomous Region in 2006 alone. Thanks mostly to the new Qinghai-Tibet railroad, foreign trade has increased to US$ 393 million, but the Tibetan economy still largely consists of subsistence agriculture.
Early Effects of a Split
Although the precise effects would be quite variable, depending on the policies adapted by the new leaders and the method of separation, it’s probably safe to say that there would be strained relations with the People’s Republic of China in the years after separation. There may be hard feelings against the Han minority in Tibet (around 6% of the population), leading them many of them to return to China. This would be a disaster, because when a business-owning minority is exiled from a country, from the Jews in England to whites in Zimbabwe, the economy is consistently dragged down.
As Tibet’s economic growth has been sustained by massive infusions of cash and economic aid from the People’s Republic of China, the new leaders of Tibet would have a difficult choice ahead of them. They would have to either rapidly reduce government spending or drastically cut back on government programs. There is not nearly enough money to maintain current expenditures without massive foreign aid. This would likely not come from the United States, as it has too much to lose with trade in China and little to gain. In fact, it is a good bet that many nations will refuse to recognize Tibet, just as no countries recognized Tibet during its period of de facto independence from 1912 to 1950. The situation would be similar to the current situation with the Republic of China (Taiwan) as all but 23 countries have refused to recognize it . As Taiwan is an active exporter and has a GDP approximately 165 times the size of Tibet’s, it is likely that even fewer nations will recognize Tibet.
Although more more tourists may want to visit Tibet in the years following independence, tourism numbers will probably decrease. Currently, the only airline offering international flights to Tibet is Air China, although there are plans for Royal Nepal Airlines to operate a Nepal-Tibet link. With the Maoists in charge of Nepal, providing a link to a former Chinese province may not be a top priority. Creating new air routes will take time and effort, especially to a place with as many challenges (location, altitude, environment, and topography) as Tibet.
Land routes from India, Pakistan, and Nepal exist, but are very dangerous, often closed, and cannot handle large amounts of traffic. Tourism, which provides a large amount of foreign capital to Tibet, would slow to a trickle, further reducing the amount of money available to Tibet’s new government.
The first few years of independence for Tibet would likely be marked by little to no economic growth, if not economic contraction. Even if there are no problems with the weather (as occurred in the ‘97-’98 season, when three million head of livestock died due to harsher than normal winter conditions), humanitarian assistance may be needed as industry declines and is replaced by people returning to nomadic pastoralism (as occurred in Mongolia following the removal of massive Soviet aid). This may lead of overgrazing and environmental problems later.
Long-Term Effects
If Tibet split from China today, it would have the 147th largest economy in the world, right above Suriname and right below Togo. In other words, it would have a lower GDP than any one of the fifty states in the United States. It would have very little clout in world trade circles.
China may eventually come to the conclusion that having a stable border state between itself and India is a good thing, and return to providing aid to Tibet as a foreign country, as well as normalizing diplomatic relationships with an independent Tibet. Unfortunately, there will not be nearly as much of an impetus to help as when Tibet was part of their country.
Without Chinese intervention, the economy would probably shift away from industry and more towards subsistence agriculture (as this was the “traditional” economic platform before the Chinese came in 1951). Again, this is the same situation that occurred in Mongolia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. An economy consisting of subsistence agriculture is much more volatile, more likely to be in need of humanitarian assistance, and definitely not likely to grow at the current 12% annual rate.
As a landlocked and difficult to reach country, trade will be vastly reduced unless a deal is struck with China. The routes into the Sichuan and Qinghai provinces would have to be re-opened, but if China levies any import or transport duties, it is difficult to see how physical Tibetan exports would be economical.
There remains the possibility of Tibet trying to become a “cyber-power,” providing services through the Internet as parts of India and Mongolia have done. However, with more than half of its citizens illiterate and only 16% owning a computer, this may be more difficult than it seems at first blush. Tibet’s new government would need to maintain and upgrade a country-wide system of education in order to provide workers for a knowledge-based economy. This will be difficult to set up immediately post-independence, due to the number of competing demands for government money and the drying up of Chinese aid, and so would only be possible as a long-term goal.
On the plus side, Tibet has large deposits of gold, salt, and copper. If the current commodities boom continues, these could provide an economic boost to an independent Tibet. Tibetan authorities may be able to manage the extraction of these materials better than the Chinese government. Due to the difficult climate and remoteness of the region, though, commodities prices may have to remain high to make extracting these materials economical. Again, routes through either Nepal/India would have to be improved, or the Tibetans would have to be economically dependent on Chinese routes.
Conclusion
Economically, an independent Tibet would be a greatly reduced Tibet. It would be very difficult to maintain the current standard of living for ordinary people. The GDP of Tibet would most likely contract in the years post-independence, and not grow nearly as quickly as it has as a part of China. Although there may be other benefits to an independent Tibet, from an economic standpoint, it would most likely be a disaster.
Comments
One Response to “What If Tibet Was Free?”
Got something to say?
Finally, someone has porvided a sound analysis of what would befall Tibet if it were be an independent nation based on sound economics, rather than one based on the emotional rhetoric of the clueless middle-class western lovers of the despotic Dali Lama.
Historical references to how Tibet fared while he and the other Tibetan nobility enslaved and grew rich on the backs of the people of the country before Annexation by China would reveal why he is so desperate to regain his throne.
As part of the PRC, China has improved, and continues to improve, the daily living standards of the average Tibetan.
To gain independence would only mean a giant step back into the slavery and poverty under the yoke of feudalism under the Dali Lama for the majority of the Tibetan people.