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Investing for an Alien Invasion
May 6, 2008
A key part of active investing is figuring out what will happen to particular investments under specific circumstances. This is why so many questions are sent in to finance columnists, asking what they should do if they think another war or recession is on the way. However, I have found absolutely NO advice on how to structure my investment portfolio if an alien invasion is imminent. I have put together these tips so that you can have the right stocks to profit when - not if - the extraterrestrials start attacking your city.
Sectors to Avoid: Retailers, Transportation, Finance
Large retailers will be hit by the “perfect storm” of reduced consumer demand, a dysfunctional supply chain, and the death of most of their customers by marauding alien bands. Consequently, a “Strong Sell” is in order for Wal-Mart (WMT - quote) and Target (TGT - quote).
It seems that finance firms would be in a unique position to find deals amongst the rubble of collapsed Western civilization. Unfortunately, most major banks and finance firms are headquartered in those selfsame cities that would be destroyed early in an attack, leading me to place a “Strong Sell” on almost all finance firms. Two exceptions are National City (NCC - quote) and KeyCorp (KEY - quote), due to their headquarters in Cleveland, a city which is likely to be overlooked by extraterrestrials.
Worldwide air superiority for the little green men (hereafter referred to as “LGMs”) is almost a given; “stealth” capabilities aside, it is much more difficult to hide in the air than on the ground. Ships are also easily spotted from the air, or even space, and virtually all unauthorized shipping platforms will be destroyed by LGM hostilities. Most importantly for our purposes, the global supply chain will be shattered. UPS (UPS - quote) and Fedex (FDX - quote) will have major difficulties shipping during these hostilities, but may find it hard to raise prices in order to compensate due to reduced orders from the now-obliterated cities. These factors will erode their profit margins and they definitely warrant a “Sell” on both stocks.
Similarly, railroad lines are easy prey for roving attack saucers. However, as the invading force or puppet government will have use for railroads for rounding up dissidents, sales will not dip quite as much as other transportation modes. In addition, government contracts tend to be a reliable source of revenue. I would rate both Norfolk Southern (NSC - quote) and CSX Corp. (CSX - quote) as “Holds.”
Sectors to Overweight: Defense, Generics, Chemicals
Any attempts for humanity to fight back against the LGMs will, by necessity, be asymmetrical. We may not be able to send an F-22 up directly against their Glerg-4 KillCraft, but we would be able to send many drones up and hope one gets lucky. We probably could not send a division of troops against their death rays, but we may be able to smuggle in explosives to the mothership. All of this leads to the conclusions that only a certain kind of weapons maker will profit during this invasion. A defense company that makes a variety of cheap, easily replaceable armaments, while adapting to the shifting battleground, will win more government contracts. Of course, the company that merits a “Strong Buy” is the Russian firm Izhevsk Mechanical Works (RTS: IGMA - quote), creators of the AK-47.
Humanity will need to learn how the alien technology works, and for that we are going to need some reverse engineers. The best companies that do this today are the ones that reverse engineer high-technology products already. Generic drug companies such as Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA - quote) will do quite well figuring out exactly which compounds are being given out to brainwash the masses of areas under LGM control, and thus earn a “Buy.” More importantly, mankind will have to study what we think of as “electronic” technology (although they may not use electricity at their stage of development), such as computers, flying saucers, and death rays. I issue a “Strong By” on Microsoft (MSFT - quote) which has proven that they are well versed in stealing other people’s ideas.
It is reasonable to assume that the aliens will need specialized chemicals that were available on their home planet but not here. Major chemical manufacturers will clamor to produce the exotic, chlorine-based molecules our alien overlords will crave. If you are not bothered by “sin stocks” and profiting from the destruction of your own species, I would place a “Strong Buy” on both Dow Chemical (DOW - quote) and Du Pont de Nemours (DD - quote). Let the socially responsible funds miss out on the profits to be made from tobacco, gambling and aiding and abetting the subjugation of our species to extraterrestrials.
Conclusion
It makes perfect sense to start positioning your portfolio immediately for any upcoming alien invasion. In addition, immediately post-attack would be a great time to add money to your portfolio, as most people will not be prepared and sell their holdings willy-nilly to purchase food and something, anything to burn for heat. As Baron Rothschild once said, “Buy when there’s blood on the streets.” When that blood is green, so much the better.
Bill Laboon holds no positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. He would like to thank the authors of “An Introduction to Planetary Defense: A Study of Modern Warfare Applied to Extra-Terrestrial Invasion” for their insights.
Comments
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Thank you for sharing this wisdom with us.
Any thoughts on media and entertainment stocks?
I’d also be interested in a follow-up post on structuring a portfolio that will best make it through a robot rebellion.
As I see it, the real difficulty is predicting which of these apocolypses will occur first.